Night Ferry

Another Halloween

Posted in Cappuccino moments by minifish on October 31, 2008

On the way back home, it was already very late. While waiting for a green light, I spotted some teenagers in Halloween costumes running across the street. One dressed in a bright pinkish buddy outfit so that I can watch that pair of big pink ears jumping up and down in the dark night. Oh, yes, it is the time for Halloween again.

Having been so swamped, I completely forgot today is the Halloween. I did not even get myself a pumpkin. What a shame. :-(

The first time I ever heard about Halloween is from the cartoon “It is the Great Pumpkin, Charlie Brown”.

What I was most impressed from that cartoon is Charlie Brown’s “I got a rock”. :-) Over my entire life I have probably carved a pumpkin once, but it does not prevent me from becoming fond of pumpkins and Halloween.

Last year’s Halloween was spent in the big apple, however. No pumpkin either. During that entire day, it rained a bit here and there. The sky was grey, but the air was fresh. In the late afternoon, two friends and I were walking along the quiet pebble streets in the soho area. Occasionally I saw people wearing strange/outrageous costumes quietly passing by.

Halloween always gives me a home-feeling. Kind of ironic considering most of people go out partying. Guess part of it is that you have to stay home waiting for some treat-or-trick kids knocking your door. The other part is that skeletons and witches are so creepy, it feels safe to be home.

It finally occurred to me that I should link Halloween with a party night. An acquaintance told me this year he is going to dress as the Joker from the movie Dark Night, and party until the next dawn.

Then I dig out one of the old but favorite pictures: that drunken pumpkin. No sure who did this, but the picture is so creative, and so humorous. Honestly, I would rather link Halloween with this pumpkin face than some scary skeletons and monsters.

Speaking of the scary part of the Halloween, another Nike commercial that I love definitely fits the spirit. I just do not understand why it was banned in the United States.

How to enjoy Minneapolis: Where to stay, and where to eat

Posted in When fish flies by minifish on October 30, 2008

A colleague busted in. He is taking his family to Minneapolis for the Thanksgiving break. For some reason he wants to know where to stay in that city.

“Downtown Minneapolis is my preferred location.” He announced, “Which hotel do you think is the best?”

“A family of six on this trip?” I blinked my eyes and asked, “What is your budget?”

There are some really nice hotels and restaurants in Minneapolis. To stay near the downtown area, I have several picks. The first one is Graves 601 Hotel that I absolutely love. The hotel is trendy and chic.

There is also Chambers Hotel nearby. I tried other Chambers before. This hotel is very “arty”. The lobby is amazing.

Grand Hotel is rather “grand”. That is where I am going to stop. I have not tried its restaurant Zahtar yet.

The newest addition at downtown Minneapolis is the W hotel (The Foshay). It was an instant classic because the hotel is based on a historical landmark of Minneapolis.

Then comes the restaurants.

Two of my friends living in Minneapolis are big into fine-dinning. So together with the couple we had many adventures.

Believe it or not, the downtown (plus the warehouse district area) is really thriving for an excellent food selection.

My favorite is Cosmos. We once had chef’s table. The service is awesome. In terms of cocktails, Neal the bartender makes great Mojitos. In general the service quality can vary a bit. But I did have a couple of truly pleasant dinners.

Chambers Kitchen is owned by Jean-Georges Vongerichten. It is located in the Chambers Hotel. I have to say the setting is great, and the service is professional. The restaurant offers a good selection. But one dish — The Thai spring roll, turns out to be fried, which is quite a let-down.

Sanctuary is rather hidden in an unimpressive neighborhood near the University of Minnesota west bank, but the interior design and the menu are rather innovative.

Saffron restaurant is another favorite. Good food, good review, and good prix-fix menu.

Alma restaurant is a hidden Jewel in the east bank of Minneapolis (not far away from downtown). It is more of a casual dinning environment, but simply elegant. We have been there many times and enjoyed its wine list and creative and fresh dinner menu.

Rogue Chocolatier has some of my favorite twin cities chocolate choices. And Surdyks offer pretty good wine selections. Also love the fact that there are some neat art shops and galleries surrounding the liquor store, plus the specialty/high end grocery store Lunds almost a block away.

Richard Florida’s list of best places to live

Posted in In the news, When fish flies by minifish on October 28, 2008

Speaking from personal experience, I cannot agree with Richard Florida more that where you live affects your life tremendously. To borrow that famous quote from the movie Batman Begins: “It’s not who you are underneath, but where you live that defines you“. :-)

For two years my friend has been trying to get me move to San Francisco. And the temptation does run high. At some points he said:”You really should move. When you are in San Francisco or other big cities, even your face is lightening up.” 

He has his point.

Actually, being rather picky, I am not totally into all big cities. In “Who’s Your City? How the Creative Economy is Making Where to Live the Most Important Decision of Your Life”, a new book by Richard Florida, he outlined a list of cities that are best to live. So I made a quick note from an in-flight magazine that discussed about this book. There are probably many lists to tell you where to live, but there is reason that I favor his list.

Overall Best Places for Mid-Career Professionals (single or married, without children, ages 30-44)
Large regions: San Jose, CA, Minneapolis, Austin, San Diego, Denver
Medium-size regions: Stamford, CT, Portland, ME, Madison, WI, Omaha, NE, Des Monies, IA
Small regions: Durham, NC, Provo, UT, Reno, NV, Fayetteville, AR, Boulder, CO

Overall Best Places for Empty-Nesters (ages 45-64)
Large regions: San Francisco, Seattle, Boston, Minneapolis, Hartford, CT
Medium-size regions: Stamford, CT, Portland, ME, Madison, WI, Honolulu, HI, Rochester, NY
Small regions: Boulder, CO, Trenton, NJ, Fort Collins, CO, Santa Rosa, CA, Norwich, CT

No wonder each time I fly to Minneapolis, there is always this pleasant feeling all over me…

Cute panda picture series: First look at the world

Posted in In the news by minifish on October 24, 2008

Hummm, not sure how many panda pictures I have collected.

Do not blame me. They are just so cute.

Today BBC has one: Hello World!

According to BBC, “one of twin Giant Panda cubs — the first to be delivered this year at a panda protection center in China — is placed in an incubator”.

Tagged with: ,

That travel sidekick site I cannot book my trip without

Posted in When fish flies by minifish on October 23, 2008

Being a victim of frequent fliers program (and there is no doubt about that), I am addicted to the elite status. The benefit of airline elite status is attractive even in the eyes of one of the most logical minds coming out of most brutal economic training.

To get there one has to fly (yeah, sounds like that I have to…) and many of these trips are inter-continental. Choosing the right seat matters a lot, especially if you book an economy ticket. So I rely on seatguru (http://www.seatguru.com), which provides the detailed seat maps on virtually all airplanes of all airlines in the United States. This website also gives you tips about which seats are good and which seats are bad.

One of my colleagues made a trip to Germany last year. Fortunately she consulted me and picked a good seat. She then became so grateful.

“That eight-hour flight is truly not that bad”, she said.

“Of course,” I replied, “especially if you travel in coach.”

Words travel fast. These days airlines are squeezing every possible dime out of passengers. Now, I notice that quite some good seats are reserved, either for travelers with an elite status, or for extra money. Northwest, which started this trend, charges $25 extra for a premium (a.k.a. good) seat. To be honest, some of these so-called premium seats (coach choice seats) are really not that “premium”.

Be aware, however, that seatguru.com does not have a good coverage for airlines outside the United States. In 2007 I made a trip to India, so that first time ever in my life I ”enjoyed” a MD-11, the so-called “three engines” airplane. Seatguru does not cover KLM, so being unable to pick a good seat makes that trip miserable. Of course the entire trip was rather miserable in the first place.

Over the years I also grew picky with hotels.

To choose a hotel, the first sidekick I turn to is tripadvisor (http://www.tripadvisor.com), which gives a pretty good coverage on virtually all the hotels. I also like its feature which allows you to search the same hotel from multiple travel websites by one click.

After selecting a hotel, I turn to a newcomer in the internet travel– tripkick.com (http://www.tripkick.com). This website uses the similar idea as seatguru.com. Instead of tipping a traveler about picking the best economy seat (or business class seat), it tells you which room of a given hotel is the best, and which floor of the hotel you should avoid.

The problem with tripkick.com currently is its limitation in terms of regions covered. So if you are looking for room information for a resort in Hawaii, for example, you are out of luck. Hopefully they expand their coverage soon.

That old flame

Posted in Cappuccino moments by minifish on October 22, 2008

A dear friend of mine sent out a group email informing everyone that she is back to America for a job at the headquarter after working in China for two years. At the end of the message, she said:”So I will be back to America for a while. Meanwhile, if anyone who is visiting America, make sure let me and fish know.”

I was so happy to learn that she is back. By accidence, I clicked “Reply All”: “Cannot wait to see you back! I am heading to China for the new year.”

Within one day, a strange (also plain) email arrived. At first glance, I almost dumped it directly into the junk mail folder. Just a normal “say-hi” email, but made me stare at the email address for a while — enough time, in this case, trying to figure out who the sender is. The next day, another email arrived. The same sender.

All of sudden, old memories flashed back. That one. Now his face popped up. Those awkward conversations, articles, and stares…

I always wonder had I not become what I am now, would I be a good writer? Life is full of surprises and up and downs.

After so many years, I cannot believe he still has this past ”nothing” in his mind. :-)

Someone’s heart is as cold as stone

Posted in Cappuccino moments by minifish on October 18, 2008

Mom called this evening, after returning from visiting one of her long-time friend. Skype works great, and she seems to be in a chatty mood.

Then I learned that her friend just came back from America and has been hospitalized since.

So I asked what had happened to her. Mom does not know the exact medical term: “Something like an allergy to pollen”. Then she described her friend’s experience at the time.

Her friend — who has a history of lung problem — was visiting a friend of their son with her husband. This particular friend has a a big garden and there are flowers everywhere in the house. She immediately felt uncomfortable and had to leave early. Her symptoms got worse after their return, so instead of checking into local hospital immediately, she bought a ticket and flew back.

She almost died on the airplane, having seizure and breathing problems. She was shipped directly to hospital right after the airplane landed, and has been in hosptial ever since.

I become more and more outrageous. Eventually I broke out: I cannot believe how heartless her son is! If his mother is having a problem, why cannot he bring her to the local hospital, and why did he stop her from boarding that flight?

Cheap.

Just for the sake of some money — I am sure he is financially sound, just as I am pretty sure he never ever would think about purchasing medical insurance for his mother.

Then I recall another incident. Another mom’s long-time friend visited her son and daughter-in-law in America a couple of years ago. Togther with her husband she was taking care of the grandchildren. Then one winter she fell and broke her leg. Of course, during the couple of years of their stay her son never bought them medical insurance. The son, who has a medical degree, took her to the ER. The surgery led to steel pins in her bone to fix the damage. When it was the time to re-check and to remove some of the pins, her son bought them a pair of ticket and sent them back, so that the remaining part of the surgery could be saved to China. So can some money for the son.

I cannot imagine how painful it was for a 70-year old, to endure a 14-hour trans-pacific flight, in a narrow economy seat, with a broken leg.

Hicks are not defined by geographic locations. As much as I love China, some Chinese, to me, are cheap. I do not care what kind of academic degree they have, how big the house they bought, how fancy the car they drove. They are just cheap.  

For the fact that they are better educated, more financially sound, yet can still have a heart as cold as stone, I loathe them.

From New York Times: Warren Buffett’s tip for everyone

Posted in Finance and economics, In the news by minifish on October 17, 2008

How could a money market fund earn a return even below S&P500 these days? Aren’t they supposed to generate safe returns for investors? My colleague then gave me the famous quote by Warren Buffet “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

Now Mr. Buffett spoke again. “Buy American. I am.” He titled his article at the New York Times, published online October 16, 2008.

Buy American. I Am.

By WARREN E. BUFFETT

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So … I’ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I’m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor’s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America’s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky’s advice: “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.”

I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

A version of this article appeared in print on October 17, 2008, on page A33 of the New York edition.

Finally, Robert Downey Jr.’s Sherlock Holmes

Posted in In the news by minifish on October 15, 2008

Anyone else not interested in the presidential candidate debate tonight?

Returned home about 8:30PM, exhausted, and still picked up two phone calls from co-workers. Not about the debate, but about the pending projects.

It has been a rather depressing day. Besides rushing for two separate deadlines, just to consider how often my dear and beloved co-workers popping up or pounding my door loud (if it was shut), for all sorts of helps they can ask and that, they believe, deserve my help. It really starts to get old.

I am not a technical support, nor a secretary. I am a good listener, but not willing to waste my time for some fresh ideas that both of us know will go nowhere. Hello, ever see the movie “27 dresses”? Maybe it is time for me to own a DVD copy of it.

Then all of sudden the news that Guy Rickie is divorcing his famous singer wife grabbed the headlines of the world (I am not kidding…).

While I have no interest in Guy Rickie, I did pay a bit more attention lately for his work. He is directing a movie about Sherlock Holmes featuring one of my favorite actors Robert Downey Jr.

Now the spillover effect takes place. It is the Google-time. To my surprise, pictures of Robert Downy Jr and the gang shooting the movie in London have already spread all over the place. Right is one of these I found with Downy in that famous outfit.

Then it is obvious a piece of old, but to me, fresh, news: Jude Law plays Dr. Watson! Interesting cast.

I am not thrilled, but would still consider him a reasonable choice.

My reaction is of course different when I heard another movie is coming out with Sacha Baron Cohen and Will Ferrell playing iconic characters Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson. Just this idea already makes me smile big time.

However, I admit I am more excited about Downey’s Holmes. It is always amazing to see how he can develop a character — be it ordinary or abnormal — way above everyone’s expectation.

Of course, thanks to our great invention of the time: YouTube, I was able to see some video clips that give more details. Here is one.

USA Today article: “Budget sites to keep you out of the red” (by Laura Bly)

Posted in In the news, Techinical tools and notes, When fish flies by minifish on October 12, 2008

Reading newspapers can be relaxing in two ways: read it in your PJs while sipping a cup of freshly brewed coffee in the morning, or read it while you are 20,000 feet above the ground in an airplane.

It tends to get more interesting if you happen to be on the airplane while reading an article about travel. Here is the work by Laura Bly that I discovered yesterday, on an airplane.

BUDGET SITES TO KEEP YOU OUT OF THE RED

By Laura Bly, USA TODAY

With stock prices falling like acorns, budget-centric websites are rising to the top of more vacationers’ bookmark lists. USA TODAY’s Laura Bly points a mouse to 25 sites — some old favorites, some newcomers — aimed at bargain hunters.

AIRFARES

Airfarewatchdog.com

Relying on brain power rather than computerized algorithms, Airfarewatchdog’s site and newsletter emphasize unadvertised, time-sensitive deals, including Web-only fares. Deals are checked for availability, and the site points out when a “bargain” really isn’t.

Farecast.live.com

Farecastattempts to answer one of the toughest airfare dilemmas — buy now, or wait? — by making predictions based on historical data on whether fares will rise or fall over the next seven days. Also worth clicking: FareCompare.com

Kayak.com{+1}

This streamlined search engine helps fliers find the cheapest, most convenient itineraries. Filters exclude such factors as red-eye flights, while a fee chart compares extra charges on 25 airlines. One drawback: In disagreement over how search results are displayed, American Airlines’ fares have been pulled from the site. Also worth clicking: Itasoftware.com (for single searches in a 30-day time frame ).

Southwest.com

Though its fares may not be lower than competitors’, the discount giant’s refusal to allow booking on any website other than its own means that if you’re flying from or to a Southwest market, you should check fares on their site as well. Transparent search returns let you see all fares, even if they’re sold out, so you know why you’re paying more.

Yapta.com

Short for “your amazing personal travel assistant,” Yapta tracks airfares for specific itineraries, alerts you when prices go down, and, if you’ve already bought a ticket, helps you get a travel credit or voucher for the difference. (Yapta only sends an alert if the savings are more than the airline’s rebooking fees, and claims 19% of purchased flights qualify.)

ACCOMMODATIONS

Airbedandbreakfast.com

Whether it’s a spare futon, blow-up mattress (hence the name) or private apartment, the options at recently launched AirBed&Breakfast target adventuresome, cost-conscious travelers. The site lists hosts in more than 250 U.S. cities and 60 countries who rent space in their homes; credit card bookings are automated and rates average $102 per night, plus transaction fees of 5%-12%. Also worth clicking: Couchsurfing.com; Roomorama.com

Betterbidding.com

Dedicated to helping travelers score the best deals on “blind booking” sites Hotwire and Priceline, this message board posts overall strategies, lists of hotels by zone and quality level, and winning and losing bids. Also worth clicking: BiddingForTravel.com; BidOnTravel.com; Re-Bidding.com

Forestcamping.com

Aimed at car, RV and tent campers, Fred and Suzi Dow’s site posts reviews of campgrounds in more than 150 U.S. national forests (all visited by the authors) with fees ranging from free to $25 per night. Also worth clicking: FreeCampgrounds.com

Hostelworld.com

Once catering largely to backpackers in bunk beds, many of the 600 North American hostels listed on Hostelworld.com offer private rooms, fresh linens, flat-screen TVs, free Internet access, meals and transportation at rates ranging from $18-$35 per person a night. Also worth clicking: HostelBookers.com

Hotwire.com

In exchange for discounts off published hotel rates, Hotwire doesn’t reveal the name or specific address until you pay. Unlike “blind booking” rival Priceline, it lists its non-refundable prices up front, plus such amenities as airport shuttle, pool or free breakfast.

KnowYourTrade.com

This San Francisco-based directory rates, reviews and categorizes more than 60 home exchange clubs, with tips for making the most of an exchange. Also worth clicking: Homeexchanger.blogspot.com

Priceline.com

The original name-your-own-price travel site peddles published rates, too, but remains best known for its 30% to 60% discounts on (mostly) chain hotels whose identities and exact locations aren’t disclosed until you’ve committed to a non-refundable purchase.

VRBO.com

Part of the Homeaway.com{+1} network, this “vacation rentals by owner” site concentrates on U.S. properties, from mountain cabins to oceanfront villas. Listings include availability calendars, but owners can choose not to post negative reviews. Also worth clicking: PickPackGo.com; Rentalo.com; Zonder.com

DEALS/STRATEGIES

BudgetTravel.com

The online incarnation of Arthur Frommer’s Budget Travel magazine mixes authoritative, expert-driven information with a growing social media component that includes reader tips and travel journals. Particularly noteworthy: Real Deals and This Just In, a daily blog. Also worth clicking: SmarterTravel.com

Craigslist.org

Though this popular marketplace is almost as famous for scammers as for bargains, sharp-eyed (and wary) travelers can nab deals on everything from vacation rentals to theater tickets. Tips: Buy locally from people you can meet in person whenever possible, and never wire funds.

Lastminute.com

Travelocity’s last-minute site lists air/hotel and air/car packages, most in North America, priced up to 70% off on departures from hours to three weeks in advance. Also worth clicking: Licketytrip.com (for last-minute vacation rentals); VacationsToGo.com

Liftopia.com

Aimed at slope-bound travelers willing to commit in advance to the days they want to ski, Liftopia.com offers discounted, non-refundable lift tickets at more than 60 alpine resorts in North America. Prices fluctuate depending on snow conditions and other factors, but average about a third below on-mountain rates.

Mousesavers.com

Disney fans looking for bargains gravitate here for discount codes and coupons on everything from theme-park admissions to Mary Poppins Broadway tickets, plus tips and tricks to making the most of a visit to Orlando or Anaheim. Also worth clicking: wdwinfo.com; UndercoverTourist.com

Travel-Ticker.com

This recently launched deal aggregator, a spinoff of Hotwire, updates listings hourly and emphasizes “geographically targeted” choices (meaning Californians are more likely to see come-ons from Cabo San Lucas than Curaçao.) Also worth clicking: Deals.BootsnAll.com; ShermansTravel.com{+1}; Travelzoo.com

GETTING AROUND

CarRentalExpress.com

Drawbacks may include skimpier support services, but independent and off-airport car rentals can save up to 30% over major chains featured on most agency sites. Also worth clicking: BreezeNet.com; Kayak.com; Hotwire.com and Priceline.com (for discounted but non-refundable rates with major chains).

GasBuddy.com

GasBuddy.com collects quotes from nearly 800,000 volunteer spotters across the USA and Canada. A “temperature map” shows where prices are highest and lowest; a just-launched trip planner predicts where you’ll need to fill up and finds the cheapest stations along your route. Also worth clicking: fuelcostcalculator.com; drivepricing.com; gasprices.mapquest.com

GoLoco.org

Created by the co-founder of the car-sharing service Zipcar, this social-networking site connects would-be carpoolers across North America. Members post desired trips and arrange the details online; riders and drivers typically split travel expenses equally, based on a cost of 50 cents per mile traveled. Also worth clicking: eRideShare.com; PickupPal.com; Zimride.com

Google Transit

(google.com/transit) Recently expanded to metropolitan New York, Google Transit targets budget and eco-minded travelers with point-to-point trip planning, displaying public transit stops and locations in 60 U.S. cities and 10 foreign countries. A “My Location” feature on Web-enabled mobile phones uses GPS or nearby cellphone towers to zero in on your starting point. Also worth clicking: HopStop.com

DINING

Roadfood.com

Foodies Jane and Michael Stern and their team of reviewers spotlight “sleeves-up food” from noteworthy diners, BBQ joints and other restaurants across the USA, most of which cost under $10 per meal. Also worth clicking: Hollyeats.com

Restaurant.com

The site sells discounted gift certificates (most commonly $10 for a face value of $25), good at 8,500 restaurants in 248 U.S. cities. Diners can search by ZIP code, city or state; minimum purchase and other restrictions apply. Also worth clicking: KidsMealDeals.com

1—This company is a business partner of USA TODAY